There's a lot of noise right now about building back better after Covid-19. When it comes to addressing climate change, are we really prepared for what that looks like? The last six months have been a moment of reckoning — we’ve been confronting entrenched, systemic issues in society, from racial justice, to gross economic inequality and climate change. Crisis points like this can inspire visions of a better world, and we’re hopeful that ‘building back better’ in the light of coronavirus, Black Lives Matter and global heating means realising a vision of a fairer, kinder, greener society. The UK’s commitment to reaching net zero — i.e. reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 100% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels[1] — will be a critical parameter in defining what this radical change looks like.
During the tumult of 2020 so far, we’ve been happy to see sustainable behaviours we’ve been supporting for years gain more mainstream traction and awareness. Some of these behaviours may seem small, like walking and cycling more, or eating less meat and dairy[2] — but, adopted en masse, lifestyle changes like these could add up to 62% of emissions reductions required by 2050, as estimated by the Climate Change Committee in 2019. Some may see behaviour change as a way of tinkering around the edges while letting governments and corporations off the hook, but the reality is that, in a net-zero world, we will be living very different lives and few of us are prepared. Our consumption of meat and dairy will have drastically reduced, and we’ll be mindful when we buy new electronics, appliances and clothes. Our roads and public spaces will be overhauled to make walking and cycling safe and easy. For some, working life will be more flexible, with a greater proportion of work done remotely. Those who fly will take fewer flights than they do now. Available space in cities will be turned over to nature. Just imagine — fewer cars on the road, fewer planes in the sky, fewer people crushed into rush-hour trains and buses. Living in lockdown in such worrying circumstances is not fair or sustainable, and yet some of the changes it has brought to the way we live have given us a glimpse of the future.
So often, the rhetoric of global heating is apocalyptic, urgent, and terrifying — appropriate language for a crisis. But now that we’ve been given a bittersweet opportunity to build back better, it’s good to see visions of a hopeful alternative future surfacing. Cities cloaked in green. Safe, warm accommodation for all. Neighbourhoods built to prioritise communities, not traffic. But how are we actually going to get there? From a citizen perspective, what knowledge and attitudes do we need in place to support the reality of ‘building back better’?
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In late 2019, we commissioned qualitative research to find out where mainstream citizens really are in terms of understanding, feelings and personal action on climate change. This repeated an approach we had first taken exactly ten years earlier, and our findings assess the extent to which things have moved on since then. The run up to the new research had seen an array of extreme weather events, and widespread media coverage of Greta Thunberg, Extinction Rebellion and plastics pollution — but was this translating into increased knowledge and commitment to personal change for people outside an ‘activist’ community?
Overall, people are now aware of a much ‘noisier’ picture of issues, organisations and opinions than they were ten years ago. At the same time, people are struggling to move on from doing their recycling to taking more impactful action. We identified four major gaps in understanding and awareness about the UK’s journey to net zero, which were:
- A lack of understanding about what we personally will need to do
- A lack of understanding about where emissions come from and how they contribute to global heating
- A lack of awareness about the UK's legally binding targets and timeframes
- A lack of acute concern or urgency
We were surprised by our findings, and we hope they’ll act as a useful reality check for practitioners.
1. A lack of understanding about what we personally will need to do to achieve net zero
When asked what pro-environmental behaviours they were already doing, or would consider doing, most participants told us they’re already doing quite a lot for the environment. Worryingly, however, in actual fact their actions centre on anti-waste behaviours which, though important, are relatively low-impact in carbon terms. Recycling has continued to expand into more areas of life, and single use plastics have burst onto the scene as a major outlet for outrage and anxiety, with David Attenborough and increasing concern for ocean wildlife mentioned as major factors.
Qualitative research by Real World Planning, October 2019
Ultimately, the impactful things that people need to do for the environment are very different to their expectations.[3] It came as a big surprise to the majority when they were confronted with some possible ‘asks’ of the near future for the UK to meet its net zero target, such as:
- Halve meat and dairy intake
- Stop using gas for home heating
- Use an electric car
- Take no more than one return flight a year
2. A lack of understanding about where emissions come from and how they contribute to global heating
Even the most engaged and environmentally-conscious participants couldn’t explain the connection between global heating or extreme weather and the things they were personally doing or considering doing to benefit the environment. The links between our own actions, fossil fuels and a changing climate are poorly understood. People narrowly associate emissions with cars and factories, and lack a basic grasp of where emissions come from beyond these, or how greenhouse gases build up and trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere.
Because of this lack of understanding, people aren’t equipped to distinguish between two interconnected but separate problems: mess in the natural world on the one hand, and greenhouse gases causing global heating on the other. This potentially explains why recycling remains the top action for most, even though only 3% of household emissions come from waste. It’s simply easier for people to focus on achieving manageable, small, instant asks, like avoiding plastic straws or bags, when the actual lifestyle changes we need to make will require significant long term changes and sacrifices.
3. A lack of awareness about the UK's legally binding requirement to get to net zero emissions by 2030
Despite the fact that the UK government committed to a net zero target in May 2019, it feels as though few in the wider world know about the existence of this legally binding timeframe — let alone what kind of societal changes will be required to meet it. People are shocked by the extent of the reductions in their household emissions that are actually required — around 90%.[5] Governments around the world have begun introducing similar or even more ambitious targets, with some of our European neighbours aiming to reach net zero at various points between 2030 and 2050. Despite these commitments, how many of us are really aware of being on a collective national journey towards a net zero future? We can’t help thinking that knowing this would help people accept some of the big changes coming our way.
4. A lack of acute concern or urgency
Despite more and more extreme weather events around the world, and constant news of record-breaking temperatures, global heating somehow still feels like a distant worry. Behavioural science tells us we’re not programmed to react to far-off threats we can’t see or touch, and many of us don’t really believe that our children or our children’s children will be significantly impacted by global heating. Among our research participants, there was strong negative feeling towards Extinction Rebellion, and Greta Thunberg was seen by many as “irritating” or “hysterical”. Additionally, the existence of “extreme”-sounding rhetoric at both ends of the spectrum was linked to a tendency for people to disengage. As long as debate continues about what exactly should be done and why, people feel justified in not worrying — or acting — too much.
This has led us to speculate whether people feel there’s a “reasonable” middle ground in between “extreme”-sounding perspectives like those of, say, Donald Trump and Greta Thunberg (while, from the perspective of achieving net zero, the “reasonable” ground sits firmly with Greta).
We also reflected on what we’ve started calling the ‘vicious circle’ of a lack of government leadership and public unconcern. Our democracy is built on short-term popularity, compounding the problem: who wants to make unpopular decisions to mitigate a threat which is publicly perceived as barely-there? As long as the government refuse or delay taking radical action, people feel justified in not worrying too much — and, conversely, as long as people aren’t demanding radical change, the government delay it.
Moving forwards...
These findings might sound depressing, but we think they give us grounds for optimism too — especially now that public appetite for action has swelled during the coronavirus crisis. While governments around the world have a long way to go to meet the challenges of the future, identifying barriers like these provides us with direction for change. Above all, a unifying narrative about our national journey to net zero, implemented in a fair way across society, could help people accept some of the big asks of the future.
Traditionally among green campaigners, there’s been a narrative of small changes adding up to a big difference. This narrative needs an update: we’re not talking now about tinkering around the edges, but overhauling society in the image of a fair, green future. This will involve sweeping and significant changes, and while there are some things we can begin to do alone, like cutting our meat intake or avoiding a flight, a systems change approach needs to be adopted from the top to establish critical transitions like moving the UK’s 28 million homes on from gas heating, or retrofitting them with effective insulation.
We're keen to collaborate with anybody working on this challenge, so do get in touch.
References
[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-becomes-first-major-economy-to-pass-net-zero-emissions-law
[3] Living Carbon Free: Exploring what a net-zero target means for households, Energy Systems Catapult (2019) pg. 1, 3
[4] Living Carbon Free: Exploring what a net-zero target means for households, Energy Systems Catapult (2019) pg. 4
[5] Living Carbon Free: Exploring what a net-zero target means for households, Energy Systems Catapult (2019) pg. 4
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